Tag: Inflation

May 2023 Wrap-Up

A Long Month

As May 2023 turns into June here on the High Plains many thoughts tumble through my mind. The past six weeks are jumbled together without a precise timeline. Very foreign to my way of thinking. But unexpected death can do that to a person.

Travel Cross Country in May 2023

Multiple flights and a very long car trip occurred during the month of May. Planes are full as are airports and their companion Arrivals and Departures lanes. The pent-up demand from the pandemic seems not to have abated much at least as far as the travel industry is concerned.

Criss-crossing states via automobile reveals full hotel rooms along the Interstates and highways. Even more interesting to an observer were the many, many 18-wheelers carrying large loads of infrastructure goods. As compared to recent such drives, large coils of conduit have been replaced by wind tower components and gigantic concrete pipes for underground use.

The always present summer road construction was in full swing with large crews busy at work. One was reminded that we are a Republic of states with the greatly varying laws concerning travel through the work areas. Uniformity does not exist.

Inflation

Prices for goods also vary by state. Gasoline varied from $2.99 to $3.59 and while different taxing levels account for some of that, stations without petrol at some or in one case all the pumps indicate other factors are also at play.

Grocery prices are also increasing. Before long something will need to give. Pent-up demand will not be a match for overall inflation. I expect non-necessary travel will soon come to an end.

Nature in May 2023

Spring brings new life to the garden. Along with much appreciated rain are funnel clouds and tornadoes. I filmed my first rope funnel cloud on 30 May 2023. It was going away from my position. I am gaining an appreciation of the thrill of storm chasing.

The circle of life continues in my back yard. Dill plants were under attack by the anise swallowtail caterpillars (Papilio zelicaon). Were is the key word. Today, a fat robin picked them off one at a time. Perhaps food for hatchlings, the hungry caterpillars are no more.

May 2023 Blog Posts

My writing has taken a back seat to grief. And to the intricacies of becoming an adult orphan, as a friend and loyal reader of this blog described the new existence, I find myself in. The next six months or so will be spent wrapping up the pieces of my dad’s life.

Many decisions will be made. As the family historian, he possessed many old documents. What will be kept and passed on to future generations is just one of many decisions I face. However, I will attempt to return to regular posts in the coming months. Please bear with me.

 

Keeping At It -Book Review

A Memoir

Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government is Paul A. Volcker’s memoir produced with the aid of Christine Harper. Written in first person, it is hard to discern the diligent work of Ms. Harper. And it is obvious that the content is a testament to the stewardship of Mr. Volcker.

As an undergraduate economics student during Volker’s stint at the head of the Federal Reserve, I was familiar with his work. And an admirer. The book was published in 2018 and I regret so much time passed before I crossed it off the to be read list. The memoir is important both as an historic account and as a forewarning.

Early Years

A timeline of Volcker’s life is followed by a chapter on his youth and then one on the college experience. And a third on his early career. These chapters give insight on events that shaped the dedicated public servant. They also introduce the first bit of history as the United States still followed the gold standard. And how that changed.

Personally, I found these chapters intriguing. Perhaps because Paul Volcker was already established as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve when he first appeared on my radar. I was impressed by his early years. It is easy to see how the persistence, the keeping at it, evolved from his upbringing.

Public Service Begins

After the introduction and back story, the memoir dives into the thick of things. Public service at agencies in both New York City and Washington, D.C. bouncing between the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury. The tone of the writing changes from background information to economic substance. These middle chapters benefit by a reader’s knowledge, background, and interest in economics. Furthermore, an understanding of monetary policy is also useful.

Volcker began his Washington, D.C. service under President Kennedy and served presidents representing both political parties through the tenure of President Obama. His non-governmental ventures centered on financial management. But what he is most remembered for is his ending of stagflation while serving as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve from his appointment under President Carter in 1979 to the end of his second term in 1987 under President Reagan.

These chapters give a glimpse at how partisan politics can hamper decision making. Keeping at it until inflation was controlled needed a tightrope act, balancing among the political personalities. Volcker succeeded against the odds.

Keeping At It- A Forewarning

Perhaps the most important part of the memoir, Keeping At It, is the message of ethics. And the importance of good government. Volcker witnessed multiple market failures and policy failures. Yet, to this reader, his greatest concern seems to have surfaced in the last years of his life. He talks in general terms, but the implication is quite clear. There is danger in the current anti-government populism.

His legacy, The Volcker Alliance, remains in place. The task is to promote good governance. The two current initiatives involve Diversity in Government and Truth and Integrity in Government. More can be discovered by visiting the website The Volcker Alliance .

Recommendation for Keeping At It

Paul Volcker’s memoir needs a discerning audience. It is not an easy read. But I think it is an essential book for anyone interested in finance, governmental service and ethics in management. Historians will find the details accurate and of interest. I can easily see the memoir included in a graduate economics or finance course.

Keeping At It is a valuable insight into the thoughts of one of (if not the best) economic minds of my lifetime. One can only hope the current Fed Chairman has read the content for once again we are at the beginning of a financial crisis.

(Note: This post was penned September 20, 2022. It is obvious from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s address on September 21, 2022, that he has indeed read the memoir as he stated, “My main message has not changed since Jackson Hole. The FOMC is strongly resolved to bring inflation down to 2%, and we will keep at it until the job is done.”)

March 2022 Wrap-Up

Wow, March 2022  is already gone. This month needs more days in it! I think the shortness of February has something to do with the fact March always seems to disappear. Plus, this time of year has so many demands on me.

March 2022 in the Garden

Spring arrives in March and so does the beginning of the yard work. Since President Biden told us to expect food shortages this year, I decided to expand the garden and plant more. Two new beds were rototilled. Asparagus, which takes multiple years to establish will grow in one. The crowns will also be planted in the next day or so. They will reside between the grapevines planted last year and the fenced garden. Deer tend to turn their nose up at this crop.

A snow fence now encircles the Big Garden as an added deterrent against the wildlife that wander in and out. Next, I will need to build a new gate. Additionally, plans to repair the blown down fence are started. Utility lines are marked. So, the project should be finalized this weekend. Hopefully it will be a few years before hurricane force winds visit us again.

Two hundred forty-four plant seedlings are nestled under the grow lights. Not counting the sixteen peanut plants. Nor the sweet potato slips. Of course quite a few of the starts are herbs and flowers. The latter really draw in the bees; key for pollinating the fruits and vegetables of the garden.

Snow fence built in March 2022
A snow fence adds another barrier against wildlife and wild winds.

Quilts and More Quilts

I am hand quilting a small baby quilt and have another waiting in the wings. A third quilt for a toddler is in the design stages. Fabrics are picked out along with the pattern. A diagram with numbers will keep me straight. Then, there is a key to the diagram which lists each quilt by description. There will be about twenty-five fabrics altogether in this latest design. The name of the pattern is Trip Around the World. One of my favorites. If you keep to the diagram everything comes out great.

March 2022 in the Library

More books were read than reviewed in March 2022. I reread one of my favorite Helen MacInnes books as a way to protest the Invasion of Ukraine. But, I did not include a review. I also read two new board books before giving them to a mom-to-be. They were cute. Maybe I will review a series of board books this summer.

Furthermore, I think you will enjoy the next two reviews. One for each of the upcoming weekends. Both are fiction. So I need to rebalance and find a non-fiction entry that I can finish. I much prefer to lose myself in the world of imagination. Too many dry texts in my past.

Inflation Challenge

The month of April will include an Inflation Check Challenge. It will be interesting to see how prices compare. I know petrol is higher. And housing. I am glad I am not young and just starting out. That would be a real challenge! Maybe things will slow down in April. As interest rates and prices climb, the supply/demand mechanism will come into play.

The New Great Depression Book Review

The New Great Depression: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World by James Rickards beckoned from the new releases stand at the public library. This non-fiction work strives to evaluate the possible economic fall-out from the Covid-19 pandemic. The book includes a recap of early 2020 events as well as the author’s thoughts of outcomes in 2021 and beyond.

Rickards uses the first two chapters as a summary of 2020 social events. Naturally the novel coronavirus features prominently. But he also discusses the important consequences of political responses to the pandemic.

First, is the outcome of lock down’s. Rickards evaluates both the economic and health responses to the strict governmental edicts in 2020. He also discusses the tentative connection between the virus, the lock down and the social unrest that roiled through the United States and spilled over to other parts of the world.

The New Great Depression

The author turns toward economic thoughts in Chapter Three. He posits that a new great depression will mark the February 24, 2020 market downturn as a pivotal date. However, he believes the economic weakness began in the latter part of 2019 and the pandemic accelerated the time table.

Unemployment due to lock down layoffs figure prominently in the discussion. The service industry accounted for many of the job losses. Unlike manufacturing, lost services are just that-lost. A missed haircut in June will not be recaptured work.

Rickards theorizes a second wave of unemployment among higher paid labor due to the output loss from the first wave. He further postulates that output and job recovery will be hindered by the June 4, 2020 Congressional Budget Office report of unemployment benefits greater than employee earned income. This disincentive to work, if lasting, is of great concern. Rickards expounds on this point.

Modern Monetary Theory

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) features heavily in the author’s warning of possible deflation and a potential for a new great depression. Much of this economic discussion is compelling. MMT and the overwhelming National Debt are the backbone of the author’s theory of deflation. His analysis is a bit depressing. As it should be, if his analysis is correct.

The three arguments for deflation hinge on a greater savings rate, a decrease in spending and a tightening in money velocity. All three are occurring now. But will that change once the pandemic recedes? Rickards says no. I am not so sure, although I concur with his thoughts on the dangers of MMT and the horrific level of debt.

Investment Possibilities

Even though much of The New Great Depression is sobering, the author outlines steps for individual investors to prosper. His proposal relies heavily on Bayes’ theorem, an applied math formula which many may not be familiar with.

Rickards also discusses diversity in investment. He does not consider a wide array of stock companies as diversity. I found his break down of investment disbursement quite interesting. And contrary to current thought.

While I am a bit more optimistic about a return to consumer spending and firmly believe in pent-up demand, I am not totally opposed to Rickards thinking. As readers know from my Inflation Check Challenge, I tend to think inflation is in store. But, The New Great Depression definitely provides a legitimate counter point. I believe all those in the audience with interest in the economy will greatly benefit from reading this author’s point of view. Much food for thought!

Inflation Check Challenge

The inflation check challenge is a direct response to the higher gas prices on the return trip from Florida. In just ten days, there was a notable increase at the pumps. This prompted me to pay closer attention on a trip to the grocery store where things also seemed a wee bit pricier. So, I decided to issue the inflation check challenge to my readers.

How the Inflation Check Challenge Works

The first step in the inflation check challenge is to create a basket of goods to keep track of price. Items should be products (or services) that are purchased on a year-round basis. Thus, seasonal goods such as Valentine Candy or Easter Baskets are eliminated. The ideal basket will include ten to twenty consumable items. Food, gas, and medicinal items make the bulk of the basket. A key is to make the list reflect your regular spending habits.

Next, either buy or price these goods before the end of the month. This will create the base price. However, price is not the only indication of inflation. In some cases, suppliers are holding the price steady but decreasing the amount provided. For example, I have included a can of cream style corn. The can looks to be the same size but now there are only 14.75 ounces. But in the past the container held 16 ounces. So , it is important to record both price and quantity. Finally, you may want to note the merchant providing the good or service.

Then save your list to an Xcel sheet or if writing out long-hand, place somewhere safe so it won’t get tossed. AND a place easily remembered! Because at the end of April, July, and October we re-visit the Inflation Check Challenge. Of course, those so inclined can record monthly changes as well.

2021 Inflation Monitoring

2021 will provide mixed signals about inflation. But, year over year comparisons will be especially troublesome due to the Covid-19 shut downs in 2020. Even though the United States did not have a complete lockdown similar to the Wuhan Province in the People’s Republic of China, productivity plummeted in March through June of 2020. So did spending. Perhaps a comparison to that same time period in 2019 would provide more insight.

Other concerns regarding inflation come from pent-up demand. This will be an uneven demand as some states are more open for business than others. However, even individuals in the “open” states have had travel curbed. So, late in 2021 I think we will see more than just a return to normal. However, I do not know how long excess spending will continue. If at all.

Families have not only pushed back memorial services, but many young couples have delayed their nuptials. Furthermore, our mobile society has been hampered by the uneven ability to travel to locales such as Hawaii or New Mexico. I think we will have a major boom next fall. So, how long will this return to consumption last?

In economics, a low level of inflation is preferable to disinflation or worse, deflation. But stagflation such as experienced by America in the 1970’s and hyperinflation, which both Venezuela and the South Sudan have been battling are two concerns. Thus a need for monitoring inflation on an individual as well as a national basis.

Inflation Check Challenge List

I have fifteen items on my list including one fast food treat. If I snagged a sale price, I also list the regular price. Your list will be different than mine. The list should be a reflection of normal purchases that are quickly consumed. Therefore, don't include durable goods such as a new car or dishwasher.

Item

Planet Oat Extra Creamy Original Oat Milk

Small Bag Signature Select Sugar

Signature Select Cream Style Corn

Fleischmann’s Active Dry Yeast

Bananas

Kraft Real Mayo

Meow Mix

Morton Salt

Crest Pro-Health Toothpaste

Align Probiotics

Tide Botanical Rain Detergent

Kerr Regular Mouth Canning Lids

3M Ad. Allergy Furnace Filter

Dunkin Donut-Boston Cream

Regular Unleaded Gas

Amount

52 Oz.

4 Lbs.

14.75 Oz.

4 Oz.

1 Lb.

30 Oz.

6.3 Lbs.

26 Oz.

4.6 Oz.

28 Caps.

92 Oz.

12

1

Single

1 Gal.

Purchase Price

$ 3.49

 2.99

 0.69

 6.99

 0.59

 3.79

 7.78

 0.94

 4.99

26.58

11.97

 3.18

15.88

 0.99

$ 2.36

Regular Price

$ 3.99

 

 

 

 

  4.99

 

  1.19

  5.99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inflation Check Challenge-Share your Basket

For those that participated in a previous Econogal Challenge, I hope you will take this on as well. This is the basket of goods I will keep track of during 2021. The future is impossible to predict. But we can record the present. What is in your basket?